Ben Chugg article defines a term, cliodynamics, as the effort to predict future political and societal events based on past history. He then explains why this process is fatally flawed. A very good and persuasive argument on the limits of Statistics and Data Science. Surprisingly, he does not mention the findings in chaos theory that would further support his argument.
Ben Chugg. Today’s False Prophets. Conjecture Magazine, 2020-01-04. Available in html format. Approximately 2,000 words.